A model state space for the monthly Spanish energy production

Authors

  • Agustín Alonso-Rodríguez Real Centro Universitario "Escorial-María Cristina"

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54571/ajee.507

Keywords:

State space models, Kalman Filter, filtered state, smoothed state, ARIMA, tslm, ets, accuracy of forecasts , KFAS statistical package, forecast statistical package

Abstract

In this paper a model state space is estimated for the Monthly Spanish total production and distribution of energy, for the period January 2013 to January 2021. After a brief presentation of these models state space, the estimated model is used for prediction. To enhance the utility of these models, its predictions are compared with those generated with other models used in Time Series Analysis.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biography

Agustín Alonso-Rodríguez, Real Centro Universitario "Escorial-María Cristina"

Doctor en Ciencias Económicas, especialidad de Economía Cuantitativa, por la Universidad Complutense de Madrid. Cursos de doctorado en Economía por la Universidad de California, San Diego. Profesor de Econometría Decano de Ciencias Empresariales

References

Alonso-Rodriguez, A., La prediccion de series temporales mediante el modelo de regresión, Anuario Jurídico y Económico Escurialense, LIV(2021)501-520. DOI: https://doi.org/10.54571/ajee.480

Anderson B. D. O. y Moore, J., Optimal Filtering, Prentice-Hall, 1979.

Durbin, J. y Koopman, Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods, segunda edición, Oxford University Press, 2012. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199641178.001.0001

Commandeur, J. J. F.,Koopman, S. J. y Ooms, M., Statistical Software for State Space Methods, Journal of Statistical Software, 41(2011)1-18. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v041.i01

Commandeur, J. J. F. y Koopman, S. J., An introduction to State Space Time Series Analysis, Oxford University Press, 2007.

Cowpertwait, P. S. P., y Metcalfe, A. V., Introductory Time series with R, Springer, 2009. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-88698-5_1

Cryer, J. D. y Chan, K-S., Time Series Analysis with Applications in R, segunda edición, Springer, 2008. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-75959-3

FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, https://fred.stlouisfed.org

Kitagawa, G., Introduction to Time Series Modeling, Chapman & Hall/CRC, 2010

Hamilton, J. D., Time Series Analysis, Princeton University Press, 1994. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/9780691218632

Helske, J., KFAS: Exponential Family State Space Models in R, Journal of Statistical Software, 78(2017)1-39. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v078.i10

Hyndman, R. J., Koehler, A. B., Ord, J. K. y Snyder, R. D., Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing, The State Space Approach, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2008. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-71918-2

Hyndman, R.J. y Athanasopoulos, G., Forecasting, Principles and Practice, segunda edición, OTexts, 2018.

Hyndman, R. J. y Athanasopoulos, G., Forecasting, Principles and Practice, tercera edción, OTexts, 2021.

Kitagawa, G., Introduction to Time Series Modeling, CRC Press, 2010. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1201/9781584889229

Kleiber, Ch., y Zeileis, A., Applied Econometrics with R, Springer, 2008. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-77318-6

OCDE, https://www.oecd.org

Martin, V., Hurn, S. y Harris, D., Econometric Modelling with Time Series, Specification, Estimation and Testing, Cambridge University Press, 2013.

Petris, G., Petrone, S. y Campagnoli, P., Dynamic Linear Models with R, Springer, 2009. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/b135794_2

Pelagatti, M. M., Time Series Modelling with Unobserved Components, CRC Press, 2016. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1201/b18766

R. R Core Team (2021). R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. URL https://www.R-project.org/.

Shumway, R. H. y Stoffer, D. S., Time Series Analysis and Its Applications, with R Examples, cuarta edición, Springer, 2017 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-52452-8

Tusell, F., Kalman Filtering in R, Journal of Statistical Software, 39(2011)1-27 DOI: https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v039.i02

Wei, W. S., Time Series Analysis, Univariate and Multivariate Methods, Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, Inc., 1990.

Woodward, W. A., Gray, H.L. y Elliott, A- C., Applied Time Series Analysis with R, segunda edición, CRC Press, 2017. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1201/9781315161143

Zivot, E. y Wang, J., Modeling Financial Time Series with S-PLUS, segunda edición, Springer, 2006.

Published

2022-01-24

How to Cite

Alonso-Rodríguez, A. (2022). A model state space for the monthly Spanish energy production. Anuario Jurídico Y Económico Escurialense, (55). https://doi.org/10.54571/ajee.507

Issue

Section

ECONOMÍA

Most read articles by the same author(s)

1 2 > >>